The Economic Case for Worldwide Vegetarianism
Add to that list an economic case. In a study published last week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Marco Springmann and his colleagues at the University of Oxford conservatively estimate that if people continue to follow current trends of meat consumption, rather than shifting to a more balanced or plant-based diet, it could cost the U.S. between $197 billion and $289 billion each year—and the global economy up to $1.6 trillion—by 2050.
“It's always hard to really get your head around what it means if you avoid climate change to [a certain] degree, or have one less person dying from diet-related diseases,” said Springmann, a postdoctoral researcher with The Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food. “We wanted to illustrate the scale of those benefits.”
The researchers calculated the direct health-care costs of a meat-heavy diet (associated with the treatment of diseases such as diabetes or heart disease) and indirect costs resulting from unpaid care from family or friends, and lost work days. To quantify the savings of reducing meat-related greenhouse-gas emissions, they drew on a measurement called “social cost of carbon,” which estimates the value of future damages caused by each additional ton of carbon emissions.


The authors admit, of course, that the valuation techniques they used are “subject to significant uncertainties.” And achieving the kind of savings they identify would require a massive overhaul of dietary patterns across the globe—the world’s population would need to reduce red-meat consumption by 56 percent, increase fruit and vegetable consumption by 25 percent, and simply consume 15 percent fewer calories overall.
But putting a dollar value on these already well-established impacts is significant: For one, these figures can guide policy. Countries could compare these health and environmental costs when considering the implementation of programs to reduce red-meat consumption or increase fruit and vegetable consumption, Springmann said. The dollar figures could also be used to analyze potential policies, such as new taxes or changes to the regulation of food advertising.
“What lots of health research has shown is that although individuals can obviously make a difference, it's not terribly efficient to appeal only to the individual without changes in the framework,” said Springmann. “What really works [are] population-based approaches that affect the whole food environment.”
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